El análisis técnico como método de trading objetivo.
Seguro conoces el análisis técnico en el trading, ¿pero has oido hablar del análisis técnico con trading objetivo? ¿Sigues unas reglas exactas en la ejecución de tu estrategia de trading? ¿Has pensado alguna vez que no deberías de haber salido tan pronto del mercado?
Seguro que son múltiples las ocasiones que habrás leído o escuchado a dos traders utilizar las mismas herramientas para dibujar una línea de tendencia y tienen interpretaciones diferentes del resultado. ¿Por qué pasará? Eso no es porque la línea no esté bien dibujada de uno y el otro, sino que tienen interpretaciones subjetivas del resultado de su análisis. Dejan una parte de su decisión a la interpretación, a la opinión del inversor. Esto se conoce como trading subjetivo y tiene un coste de oportunidad altísimo. Son inexactos, poco o nada robustos y carecen de validez estadística.
¿Te ocurre con tu estrategia o lo desconoces? Seguro que no, pero respondiendo a una sola pregunta te permitirá contrastarlo. ¡Pruébalo!
Tabla de Contenido
Diferencias trading objetivo y trading subjetivo.
Utilizando de base el análisi técnico, diferenciamos un trading objetivo del subjetivo como aquel que da lugar a una única interpretaciones de un mismo escenario. Cualquiera sería capaz de analizar, ejecutar y comprobar la misma situación y obtendría exactamente los mismos resultados.
El trading objetivo utilizando el análisis técnico es probablemente la herramienta más potente creada para generar y ejecutar sistemas de inversión. Te permite medirlos, realizar backtest, hacer proyecciones y replicarlos, sabiendo que ejecutas idénticamente la ventaja ventaja competitiva que has obtenido en tu análisis.
Un ejemplo de trading objetivo utilizando el análisis técnico sería: operamos el Nasdaq entre las 09.00 y las 09:59 con velas de M1 siempre a largo. La señal de entrada se cumple cuando tenemos dos mínimos y dos máximos consecutivos. Entramos al mercado con la apertura de la siguiente vela. Dejamos SL en el mínimo de las dos velas anteriores y el TP en el máximo, también de las dos velas anteriores. Si llegado las 09:59, tenemos una operación abierta, la cerramos en el cierre de esta misma vela.
En cambio, cambiando la señal de entrada a la vela después de formar una estrella del amanecer, estamos convirtiendo nuestro análisis técnico de trading objetivo a trading subjetivo.
Por mucha definición que haya sobre una estrella del amanecer, incluso programando, tiene un componente de percepción personal. Son lógicas que dependen del trader, la fuente, el análisis, etc. y que aplicándola a una misma estrategia, tendremos resultados diferentes ¿Aún no te lo crees? ¡Profundicemos!
Ejemplo: estrella del amanecer o Morningstar.
Probablemente, sea una de las figuras del análisis técnico más utilizadas como señal de entrada/salida en estrategias de trading. Consiste en una figura que indica cambio de tendencia de bajista a alcista. Se compone de tres velas. Para seguir, hemos recogido de internet dos imágenes aleatorias de “MorningStar” para analizar en más detalle esta figura.
- Ambas confirman que la primera de las velas debe de ser roja, bajista.
- La segunda vela puede ser de cualquier color, pero mejor si es un Doji o Spinning Top (¿más figuras subjetivas?) mientras que el otro mientras sea un cuerpo pequeño es suficiente (¿pequeño es 15 puntos, 20, 30, con sombra?).
- En cambio, la tercera indica que es alcista, pero en uno de los casos mejor si está acompañado de volumen alto. (¿cuánto es ese volumen, 1000 M contratos?).
- He llegado a leer en libros que para que se cumpla esta figura, la tercera de las velas debe de adentrarse dentro de la primera vela en un determinado % o que necesita de confirmación en velas posteriores (¿cuántas velas más?, ¿reconfirmar significa que debe de tocar el mínimo de la segunda, primera o tercera vela, pero no cerrar por debajo?, ¿cuánto es adentrarse?).
Con este razonamiento no pretendo poner entredicho ninguna de las fuentes de estas imágenes, pero sí que una figura tan extensa y utilizada en el mundo del trading puede conllevar a múltiples definiciones y, por tanto, diferentes interpretaciones de señales.
El beneficio del trading objetivo
El margen a la interpretación personal del escenario de trading, falta de reglas claras y detalladas, son ejemplos que pueden costarte muy caro, si es que no llegamos ya tarde. Ya no solo estamos hablando de dinero, que en el mejor de los casos habrás invertido el que no necesitas para pagar el alquiler o un préstamo, sino el tiempo y la motivación para seguir con esta rama. Te puedes sentir engañado por la estrategia que has adquirido, frustrado por todas las horas invertidas delante del gráfico, infinidad de sensaciones que pueden acabar con tu proyecto de inversor en un plazo de tiempo muy corto, demasiado corto.
Ahora bien, aún más peligroso es esa ilusión de validez que caracteriza a los humanos. Pensamos que no se refiere a nosotros, que lo tenemos todo bajo control, que a mí no me va a pasar, etc. Una característica innata de los humanos es la de afirmar evidencias que están distorsionadas de la realidad. Somos la única raza capaz de superponer una creencia a los hechos, por muy mucho que hayan sido demostrados científicamente. Esto, claramente, también sucede con el trading y es un error muy común entre los inversores.
Mediante la ejecución de un trading objetivo, eliminas todos estos inconvenientes, convirtiendo tu operativa en un plan minuciosamente detallado y sin margen para sorpresas. Será más robusto al poder replicar todas y cada una de las situaci´ones, obteniendo datos de tu muestra que reflejan la realidad. Sin distorsión. Sin segos o bias. Replicarás exactamente una y otra vez tu estrategia, asegurando continuidad en el edge. No te sentirás traicionado por tus sentimientos, basarás toda tu inversión en estadística y probabilidad perfectamente calculada.
La prueba de fuego
El mejor test para determinar si un trading es objetivo es respondiendo afirmativamente a la pregunta de: ¿puede un ordenador implementar mi estrategia tal y como yo la utilizo? A priori parece una pregunta muy obvia, pero no es así.
El ejercicio anterior, definiendo MorningStar, debes de tomarlo como referencia para aplicar en todos y cada uno de los pasos de tu estrategia. No es suficiente con realizar un plan de trading o anotar todas las entradas y salidas en tu diario. Si no eres capaz de entrar en el detalle y que este sea objetivo, estás realizando un trading subjetivo, con todo lo que conlleva.
Es verdad que los traders algorítmicos, por su simple naturaleza operativa con ordenadores, tienden a ser mucho más objetivos. Aun así, puede suceder que solo se apoyen en señales de robots en una parte de su estrategia, o que salen manualmente después de tener la sensación de que se les va a girar la operación. La programación de una figura ya indica subjetividad, etc.
En mi opinión, son más las ventajas que inconvenientes de utilizar robots elaborados por uno mismo o de un tercero de confianza (ver entrada de la semana anterior sobre track record). Un robot no tiene en cuenta si ese día no hemos dormido, o si parecía que la mecha tocaba el mínimo de la vela, o justo me he despistado en colocar la orden de compra y he introducido la venta. Introduce las órdenes de tal forma que dos traders deberán de tener las mismas operaciones y resultados, y, por tanto, la ejecución habrá sido objetiva entre ellos. No hay lugar a discusión.
Conclusión
Así que, manual o algoritmo, recomendamos firmemente que su análisis técnico se base en un trading objetivo. Es el único camino para poder realizar un trading seguro, replicable, robusto y rentable a largo plazo. No dudes en probar de transcribir tu estrategia para que la pueda interpretar un ordenador, te ahorrará muchos dolores de cabeza.
Espero que te haya gustado y que sobre todo que te haya podido servir para revisar tu estrategia. Y tú, ¿Cómo definirías un Harami? Te leemos en comentarios.
Recuerda que nos puedes encontrar en las redes sociales:
Desearte un feliz día. A por muchos éxitos. Hasta la próxima.
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Sobre el autor
DTS_Algotrader
Me llamo Domingo y realizo trading algorítmico. Licenciado en Adminsitración y Direccion de Empresas y actualmente trabajando en una empresa turística como analista. Opero en los mercados financieros desde hace más de 10 años. Mi primera experiencia fue haciendo trading manual, pero cuando descubrí el trading algorítmico, ví mi pasión. Amante de los números, gráficas y estudio de las probabilidades. En mis tiempos libres me encanta ir en bicicleta y viajar.
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